Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.194756 0.233521 0.279938 0.340194 0.417208 0.513515 6.449385e-01
2025-05-18 0.128103 0.166281 0.216830 0.290181 0.396529 0.549440 7.943344e-01
2025-05-25 0.089016 0.122864 0.171378 0.248498 0.373007 0.575800 9.536570e-01
2025-06-01 0.068153 0.099485 0.147820 0.231661 0.382284 0.661509 1.275947e+00
2025-06-08 0.053815 0.082550 0.129909 0.218985 0.396326 0.770764 1.755048e+00
2025-06-15 0.043964 0.070586 0.117253 0.212122 0.421304 0.926974 2.546641e+00
2025-06-22 0.036517 0.061089 0.106662 0.206316 0.448966 1.122163 3.798893e+00
2025-06-29 0.029815 0.051553 0.093761 0.191838 0.451904 1.268465 5.270812e+00
2025-07-06 0.022590 0.039729 0.073807 0.155569 0.382560 1.146082 5.379786e+00
2025-07-13 0.019480 0.035291 0.068075 0.151375 0.402938 1.367048 8.225667e+00
2025-07-20 0.017377 0.032471 0.065177 0.153558 0.446512 1.752855 1.453319e+01
2025-07-27 0.015746 0.030323 0.063311 0.158167 0.504581 2.328796 2.880500e+01
2025-08-03 0.013979 0.027688 0.060009 0.158675 0.555485 3.045478 6.146032e+01
2025-08-10 0.012180 0.024664 0.055070 0.152486 0.577060 3.686010 1.232860e+02
2025-08-17 0.010590 0.021853 0.050059 0.144319 0.585740 4.322930 2.526741e+02
2025-08-24 0.009573 0.020218 0.047817 0.145091 0.645227 5.815621 8.826908e+02
2025-08-31 0.008701 0.018783 0.045800 0.146077 0.712209 7.963083 4.957720e+03
2025-09-07 0.007997 0.017646 0.044379 0.149023 0.801530 11.482861 1.079670e+05
2025-09-14 0.007364 0.016584 0.042938 0.151456 0.897683 16.777173 5.553033e+12
2025-09-21 0.006646 0.015181 0.040121 0.146605 0.933563 21.558215 NaN
2025-09-28 0.005636 0.012865 0.033964 0.123874 0.785776 17.933701 NaN
2025-10-05 0.005212 0.012081 0.032617 0.123697 0.851104 25.103615 NaN
2025-10-12 0.004918 0.011612 0.032201 0.128059 0.975720 40.931527 NaN